Dubai’s residential property market to see more ‘normal’ price growth in 2026
The rapid growth in Dubai’s residential real estate prices is expected to transition to a more normalised phase by the second half of this year, as an increasing number of properties come onto the market.
After several years of strong appreciation, research from ValuStrat indicates that residential price growth will moderate to around 10% this year, down from approximately 20% in 2025. While economic expansion, population growth, and ongoing infrastructure investment will continue to support demand, a substantial pipeline of new supply – estimated at around 170,000 residential units – is expected to rebalance the market and ease upward pressure on prices.
“This will lead to a situation of market normalisation,” said Haider Tuaima, Managing Director and Head of Real Estate Research at ValuStrat.
Price performance is expected to diverge by asset type. Villas and townhouses are forecast to rise by 17.7%, significantly outperforming apartments, which are projected to increase by 7.4%. Notably, more than 80% of new residential units scheduled for delivery in 2026 will be apartments.
However, ValuStrat’s researchers caution that delivery numbers are not fixed. Construction timelines are frequently revised by developers, which may affect the pace of completions and transaction volumes over the course of the year.
On the rental side, price growth is expected to stabilise at around 0% following sharp increases in recent years, “as affordability thresholds are tested across established communities,” Tuaima noted.
Other real estate segments
Beyond the residential sector, ValuStrat’s annual research suggests that Dubai’s office market will remain one of the strongest-performing globally, with capital values and rents forecast to grow by around 15%, supported by corporate expansion and persistent supply constraints in prime locations.
In 2026, Dubai is also expected to see continued strength in two other segments of the real estate market: hospitality, driven by tourism and major events, and industrial real estate, underpinned by the emirate’s role as a global trade hub.
