Transit-oriented development should be an integral part of GCC urban growth
As populations in the GCC’s urban hubs continue to grow, car-centric transport systems are struggling to keep pace with surging demand. A report from Roland Berger advocates for a strategy that puts transit-oriented development at the center of future urban planning.
With cities across the GCC experiencing rapid urban growth, substantial investments are being channeled into housing, infrastructure, transportation, utilities, and digital infrastructures to support expanding metropolitan areas. This growth is fueled by both population increases and a trend toward urbanization – over 85% of the GCC’s population now resides in urban areas, far surpassing the global average of around 57%.
Transportation, however, has traditionally lagged behind other infrastructure in terms of planning and investment, often leading to severe road congestion. In 2024, for example, a 10-kilometer two-way commute during peak hours in Dubai translated into an average of 46 hours lost in traffic annually. In Riyadh, one-way commutes by car during peak times regularly take 60 to 90 minutes.
Road congestion in the GCC is compounded by the region’s high dependence on cars. Cities such as Riyadh, Dubai, Doha, Kuwait City, and Manama are among the most vehicle-dense in the world.
Looking ahead, the problem of congestion is expected to intensify. With continued population growth and deeper urbanization, the pressure on road networks is set to only increase. Roland Berger’s report forecasts that over 90% of the GCC’s population will be living in urban areas by 2035, as vast desert landscapes outside cities remain largely uninhabitable.
Public Transport Falling Short
Globally, robust public transportation systems are a proven solution to ease road congestion. But in the GCC, public transport coverage still falls short of meeting the needs of the population. According to Roland Berger’s analysis, only 51% of people in the UAE have convenient access to public transit. In Saudi Arabia, the figure drops to 30%, while in Oman it stands at 28%, and in Bahrain it is just 21%.
Qatar is a notable exception. There, 92% of the population – primarily in Doha – can easily access public transportation.
Transit-Oriented Development
One of the strategic solutions highlighted by Roland Berger is a shift toward transit-oriented development. This approach integrates public transport planning directly into urban design, encouraging high-density, mixed-use development within walking distance of major transit hubs. The goal is to reduce car dependency, boost urban mobility, and foster livable, walkable communities.
“By aligning urban fabric with mobility infrastructure, transit-oriented development helps cities grow smarter, boosting investment returns and liveability while preparing for future change,” explained Alexandra Romanova, a Principal at Roland Berger. “This approach has significant potential for enhancing urban mobility and sustainability in the GCC, particularly in cities undergoing expansion or revitalisation.”
Several forward-looking cities in the region are already embracing this model. Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan aims to ensure that 55% of the population lives within 800 meters of a major public transport station by 2040. In Qatar, a new Transportation Master Plan seeks to increase public transit access to educational and workplace facilities by 50% by 2050.
Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, recently launched the Riyadh Metro, featuring six lines, 85 stations, and a total length of 176 kilometers – capable of transporting up to 3.6 million passengers per day. It’s estimated the metro could eliminate 250,000 private car trips daily.
“Investing in transit-oriented development is a key part of the urban strategies of cities. Aligning public transport infrastructure with the demands of booming cities can help turn congestion into connectivity and sprawl into sustainable urban growth,” noted Tobias Schoenberg, Managing Director at Roland Berger.
Drawing on successful global case studies and promising regional initiatives, Roland Berger urges policymakers to make -oriented development a core element of their urban development strategies. “Adopting the approach calls for close collaboration between city authorities, public transit operators and real estate developers, as well as the wider urban ecosystem.”
