BAA & Partners introduces framework to help airlines navigate current Middle East conflict
BAA & Partners, an aviation advisory firm, has launched a new framework to help airlines navigate the strategic and operational decisions arising from the current geopolitical environment.
Branded RADIANCE – an acronym reflecting the eight pillars at the core of the model – the framework has been developed in direct response to the unprecedented disruption that hit the global airline industry in the first quarter of this year.
Following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, airspace across the Gulf was shut down, jet fuel prices surged from approximately $96 to $197 per barrel, and thousands of flights were cancelled. The impact on the industry has been severe, on a scale not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic. Analysis from BAA & Partners shows that the world’s 20 largest listed airlines lost more than $50 billion in combined market capitalisation.
“The first quarter of 2026 has been a major stress test for the aviation industry – one that requires deep resilience to operate through sustained geopolitical disruption. Our RADIANCE framework offers a practical approach to achieving that,” said Linus Benjamin Bauer, Global Managing Partner of BAA & Partners. “It provides airline leadership with a systematic and actionable architecture to plan their moves.”
At the same time, the framework has a forward-looking agenda, designed to help airlines prepare for the next shock – whenever it may arise. In Bauer’s view, the current disruption highlights that many carriers have not yet succeeded in embedding the lessons of Covid-19 into their strategic planning and operational processes.
“This event is a stress test – and the industry has not passed it. Airlines have been optimising for efficiency and cost, but have not done enough to build structural resilience. Carriers that adopt RADIANCE can move from reactive crisis management to anticipatory resilience, enabling them not only to withstand this shock, but to emerge from it with a decisive competitive advantage.”
The RADIANCE Framework
The RADIANCE model comprises eight interlocking pillars, each addressing a critical dimension of airline vulnerability.
Route Architecture Diversification
Reducing single-point-of-failure exposure by investing in secondary hub partnerships, alternative overfly agreements, and pre-planned "shadow schedules" that can be activated within hours of a disruption.
Adaptive Fuel Strategy
Moving beyond traditional hedging to a layered approach that includes strategic fuel reserves at non-Gulf airports, diversified refinery procurement, and real-time tankering optimisation driven by geopolitical risk indicators.
Dynamic Revenue and Demand Management
Embedding geopolitical risk premiums into pricing algorithms as continuous variables rather than retrospective surcharges and developing flexible booking products for high-risk corridors.
Intelligence Infrastructure
Building anticipatory intelligence capabilities integrated directly into route-planning, fuel-procurement, and crew-scheduling systems, enabling automated contingency activation when risk thresholds are crossed.
Alliance and Supply Chain Resilience
Diversifying MRO partnerships across geopolitically distinct regions, maintaining dispersed inventories of critical spare parts, and establishing mutual aid agreements with alliance partners for emergency capacity sharing.
Navigating Regulatory and Diplomatic Frameworks
Deepening engagement with foreign ministries, civil aviation authorities, and multilateral forums to secure emergency overfly agreements and fast-track route-change approvals.
Crew and Workforce Continuity
Cross-qualifying pilots on multiple corridor variations, pre-negotiating emergency visa arrangements, and incorporating geopolitical scenario planning into crew scheduling systems.
External Communication and Stakeholder Engagement
Building pre-planned, multi-channel crisis communication architectures tailored to passengers, investors, regulators, and media to preserve stakeholder confidence and accelerate post-crisis recovery.
Flying towards benefits
Following the immediate impacts of the current conflict, several airlines turned to BAA & Partners for support in strengthening operational management and building resilience. “We are already deploying the RADIANCE blueprint with clients and seeing first-hand how its structured approach helps identify and unlock tangible benefits.”
These benefits include faster response times as a competitive differentiator, stronger workforce continuity as an operational enabler, and improved margin protection through managed exposure rather than absorbed shocks. Organisations also benefit from a systematic reduction in concentration risk across routes, fuel, maintenance and workforce, alongside strengthened stakeholder confidence and, ultimately, a lower cost of capital.
