Feeding 10 billion people more sustainably by 2070 is a $120 trillion GDP opportunity

Climate action aimed at making the global food system sustainable – as part of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius – could create global economic growth worth $121 trillion by 2070. That is according to a wide-ranging study on food systems and sustainability from Deloitte.

Fighting hunger has long been a struggle for leaders around the world. Now, in order for hunger to be wiped out globally by 2070, the world will need to feed about 10 billion people. That would require food systems to produce 40% more calories – all while also seriously limiting the environmental impacts of food production.

Making the global food system sustainable would reduce global food prices by 16%, according to the Deloitte report. On the other hand, failure to enact significant climate action could cost the global economy about $190 trillion. Those losses would come from a serious blow to agricultural and labor productivity and damage to the food system.

The world’s food system is currently woefully unsustainable. As global calories need to increase in a business-as-usual scenario, current trends will see hunger persist and emissions increase. That will cause global temperatures to rise further and cause more environmental degradation.

Agricultural producers around the world could produce nearly 3,880 calories per person, per day, by 2070, an 11% increase on the business-as-usual scenario. This would largely be driven by an increase in the supply and consumption of food in lower-income countries.

And it would be precisely lower-income countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and India that would see the largest percentage increase in food availability per person. Brazil, for example, would see an 18% increase in calories produced by 2070.

Tech-driven solutions

So, how does the world achieve this sort of ambitious transformation in the global food system? The report found that around half of the ‘heavy lifting’ would come from technological innovation, which has historically been huge in the agricultural industry.

Since 1962, productivity growth in agriculture has averaged 1.3% per year. But that innovation has not been enjoyed equally by producers around the world. Most high-tech farming is done in North America and Europe, with other continents lagging behind significantly – and production suffers as a result.

Some of those tech solutions would include smart irrigation systems, resource-efficient animal protein alternatives, or agricultural equipment being powered from renewable energy sources, to name a few. Cutting-edge technologies have the potential to significantly boost crop yields and ultimately create more adaptable and resilient food systems.

Investment is crucial

In order for global food systems to change as dramatically as is needed, significant investment is needed in a relatively short timeframe. Today, the agrifood industry only receives about 5% of all global climate financing for mitigation and adaptation, despite contributing almost one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions.

In order to shift agricultural emissions on a pathway to net-zero, climate action financing would need to be increased by about 18 times, according to Deloitte. That is equal to about $260 billion per year. Some notable international initiatives are already working towards some of these solutions. For example, the annual UN Food Systems Summit aims to push forward a system-wide transformation underpinned by sustainability, equity, and health.

Overall, the need for big changes is all too clear. The report shows that if the world is eventually able to produce more food, more sustainably, it could contribute to reducing the number of undernourished people by around 300 million.

“The current approach to food production is not sustainable,” said Randy Jagt, Global Future of Food leader at Deloitte. “Sustainable transformation of our food system addresses the major challenges we face and benefits populations already disproportionately affected by food insecurity and climate change, supporting the communities that need it most.”