Accuracy: Airport industry set for a new flight path as business models evolve

The traditional economic model of the airport industry is coming under increasing strain as the link between passenger volumes and profitability weakens. A new strategic market study by Accuracy explores what the future may hold for airports.

While global airport traffic has returned to within 5% of pre-pandemic levels, total revenues remain 12% lower than the figures recorded in 2019, according to the analysis. This disconnect stems from a structural shift in who is flying. The high-yield business travel segment has declined, replaced by leisure travelers and those visiting friends or relatives.

This new demographic of travelers is notably more price-sensitive and typically interact with airport spaces differently than their corporate counterparts. To adapt, operators must transition from being simple transit hubs into experiential destinations.

Passenger flows

The number of passengers transiting through airports is according to Accuracy expected to continue rising well beyond pre-Covid levels, likely reaching 16 billion worldwide by 2040.

The analysis found that a 10% increase in the time a passenger spends in the terminal, known as dwell time, can generate 8% more food and beverage sales and a 6% increase in retail revenue. For that reason, some airports are now focusing on monetizing waiting time by offering premium services, cultural installations, and commercial offerings to capture the interest of the modern traveler.

Growing environmental pressure

Environmental challenges are also reshaping the strategic priorities of the aviation sector. In 2024, aviation accounted for approximately 2.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions. For the average airport, around 86% of total emissions stem from in-flight operations (Scope 3), while the remaining 14% are linked to ground operations, including airport infrastructure and vehicles.

To decarbonise the industry, researchers emphasise that although reducing operational emissions remains important, the primary challenge lies in addressing Scope 3 emissions. Airports are therefore focusing on a range of measures aimed at improving efficiency and lowering their direct environmental footprint.

Common initiatives include enhancing energy efficiency across airport infrastructure – such as upgrading to more energy-efficient buildings and deploying low-emission or electric ground vehicle fleets.

Transitioning airport operations to renewable energy is another important lever, with the potential to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by up to 50%. Cochin International Airport in India, for example, operates as a fully solar-powered facility, offering a model that other airports may seek to replicate in the years ahead.

Operational improvements can also reduce emissions during aircraft ground movements. Measures such as single-engine taxiing or replacing the aircraft’s Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) with ground-based electrical power can significantly lower fuel use while aircraft are on the ground. According to the analysis, such measures can cut fuel consumption during taxiing by up to 20%.

Sustainable Aviation Fuels
However, the most significant opportunities for reducing in-flight emissions are linked to Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). Produced from non-petroleum sources such as biomass or synthetic processes, SAFs have the potential to reduce aircraft lifecycle CO2 emissions by up to 80% and are widely considered the most viable pathway toward net-zero aviation.

A previous report by Boston Consulting Group highlighted the rapid expansion expected in the SAF market, with demand projected to more than quadruple by 2030. Yet deployment remains constrained by high costs and limited supply, according to the authors of Accuracy’s report – a view echoed by recent insights from experts at PA Consulting and a joint paper from PMP Strategy and Frontier Economics.

Beyond SAFs, further decarbonisation efforts are centred on technological innovation and improvements to in-flight operations. Research and development are increasingly focused on next-generation propulsion technologies, including electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft. While these technologies could significantly reduce aviation’s carbon footprint in the long term, they remain at an early stage of development.

Overall, Accuracy’s report concludes that while there are numerous potential pathways to decarbonise the aviation ecosystem, technological limitations and persistent uncertainties continue to complicate the transition.

In addition to decarbonisation pressures, some airports also face immediate physical risks linked to climate change. Research suggests that 269 airports worldwide are already at risk from rising sea levels – a figure that could increase substantially by the end of the century.

Access to capital is increasingly tied to how an airport manages these risks. Investors and lenders are placing greater emphasis on credible decarbonisation strategies when allocating funding. While many facilities are exploring sustainable aviation fuels and hydrogen technology, these solutions are still really expensive and a scenario of widespread adoption is still quite far off in the future.

Diversification becoming essential

To maintain financial resilience, the most successful airport industry players are moving away from a total reliance on flight-related revenue. Future profitability will depend on the ability to diversify into non-aviation sectors such as real estate, logistics, and digital platforms.

Some airports are developing into multi-functional districts that serve as office, hospitality, and entertainment centers for the local community, rather than just passengers. The analysis also highlights that the specific ownership structure of an airport – whether it is public or private – is less important than the quality of its governance and investment discipline.

Going forward, digital transformation and AI are expected to play a crucial role in managing these complex operations more efficiently. By integrating more closely with broader transport networks like high-speed rail, airports can transform into multimodal connectivity platforms, ensuring they remain essential components of the global economy even as the nature of travel continues to change.

The next flight for airports

Commenting on the research, Nicolas Bourdon, partner at Accuracy and coauthor of the analysis, stated: “People will always need airports – but they increasingly need airports that deliver more than connectivity.”

“Those that strengthen communities, reduce environmental impact, and create genuine value will remain relevant, resilient, and profitable. In a world shaped by climate urgency and changing mobility, airports that align people, planet, and profit as mutually reinforcing pillars will define the future of global aviation.”